Onyx Bugett | TalkLife News
October 21, 2026
A new University of North Florida poll shows competitive statewide contests as the November election approaches, with Republican Byron Donalds narrowly ahead of Democrat David Jolly for governor and Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate race.
The survey, released October 21 by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, puts the governor’s race at 49% for Donalds and 47% for Jolly. In the Senate contest, Moody receives 49% and Nixon 45%. The reported totals include voters who initially were undecided but indicated which candidate they leaned toward.
The university’s release and methodology describe interviews with 1,471 likely Florida voters conducted October 12–19. The overall weighted margin of sampling error is approximately plus or minus 2.81 percentage points; uncertainty is greater for smaller subgroups.
A snapshot before Election Day
The numbers do not establish who will win. Sampling uncertainty, remaining undecided voters and differences between expected and actual turnout all limit what can be concluded from a single survey.
Jacksonville Today’s coverage notes that both contests have tightened compared with the lab’s earlier polling. That comparison describes a change between surveys. It cannot, by itself, prove why individual voters changed their preferences.
Reading the numbers carefully
A margin of error is not a promise that every reported percentage is exact. It also should not be used as a shortcut for declaring a winner or predicting a final vote margin. A candidate’s two-point lead in a survey and a two-point election victory are different things.
For Jacksonville voters, the locally produced research offers another look at statewide preferences. The practical decision remains which candidates and policies to support—and ensuring voting plans are based on official election information rather than a poll’s apparent momentum.