Chart of the Week: US consumer sentiment revised down after election result LSEG

“Consumers recognize that labor markets have been relatively strong, and they expect that the Fed will step in to prevent unemployment rates from spinning out of control. More consumers anticipate a strengthening economy in the latest survey, continuing an upward trend that began in April 2024. They expect labor market conditions to remain strong; less than one-third of consumers expect unemployment to increase in the year ahead, down from 38% a year ago. Consumers’ views of their personal finances inched up for the third straight month. Consumers reported stronger incomes in November, and they expect further income gains in the year ahead.

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It takes into account people’s feelings toward their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short term, and the prospects for longer-term economic growth, and is widely considered to be what’s the average node js developer salary a look at the data for 2021 a useful economic indicator. Whenever an economic report hits the wires, the most interesting nuggets usually lurk under the hood. The headline number is fine and all, but the details showing how we got there?

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Take the University of Michigan’s xor neural network Index of Consumer Sentiment for November, which hit the wires Friday. The headline uptick from 70.5 to 71.8 continues the rebound from consumers’ summertime blues, matching the signs of perking optimism we have seen elsewhere. But under the hood, we see partisan sentiment making its customary post-election flip, right on schedule! And it presents a timely reminder on the dangers of letting your political leanings affect your market outlook.

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The Current Index rose to 64.9, up from 63.3 in September and below last October’s 70.6. The Expectations Index fell to 74.1, down from 74.4 in September and above last October’s 59.3. As usual, Independents remain in between, with a 4% sentiment gain this month.

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While higher-income households expect particularly strong income growth in the coming year, consumers overall remain extremely frustrated by the persistence of high prices, Hsu said. About 44% of consumers mentioned that high prices are eroding their living standards, little changed from the past six months. The expectations index for September is now 13% above a year ago and reflects greater optimism across a broad swath of the population. While sentiment remains below its historical average in part due to frustration over high prices, consumers are fully aware that inflation has continued to slow, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. The presidential election did little to change overall trends in consumer views as consumer sentiment lifted for the fourth consecutive month, inching up to its highest reading since April 2024.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recouped early losses to trade flat, while the Topix fell 0.1%. Black Friday deals are arriving earlier this year, as U.S. consumers continue to face … During the U.S. presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to fix the economy … Marshall remains quite fxopen review optimistic that Mischief will enjoy yet another strong Black Friday, Small Business Saturday and, ultimately, holiday season.

The survey also attempts to accurately incorporate consumer expectations into behavioral spending and saving models in an empirical fashion. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was created in the 1940s by Professor George Katona at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research. His efforts ultimately led to a national telephone survey conducted and published monthly by the university. The survey is now conducted by the Survey Research Center and consists of at least 600 interviews posed to a different cross-section of consumers in the continental U.S. each month. The survey questions consumers on their views of their own personal finances, as well as the short-term and long-term state of the U.S. economy. Each survey contains approximately 50 core questions, and each respondent is contacted again for another survey six months after completing the first one.

• Over the last two months, sentiment has climbed a cumulative 29%, the largest two-month increase since 1991 as the First Gulf War and a recession ended.
• While higher-income households expect particularly strong income growth in the coming year, consumers overall remain extremely frustrated by the persistence of high prices, Hsu said.
• Looking over the next 5-10 years, consumers’ expectations for the economy have risen for the long run outlook as well, reaching its highest level since April 2024 and lifting 4% above its historical average.
• “Over the last two months, consumers have finally felt assured that their worst fears for the economy would not come to pass.
• Consumers who feel more confident about the economy generally also feel better about their employment prospects and are therefore more willing to buy houses, cars, appliances, and other items.

Last year, several major retailers ran heavy on inventory — a hangover from post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and consumer demand shifts. And when excess stock piles up in the back room and in the warehouses, the solution typically involves slashing prices to help move it out the door. Crude oil prices traded lower on Monday as fears of weaker demand in China weighed on market sentiment. Japan’s core machinery orders rose more than expected in June compared to a month ago. US stock market ended higher on Friday, extending its biggest weekly percentage gains of the year, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notching their seventh straight session of gains.

Companies that provide consumer goods often reap the initial fruits of improved consumer sentiment. Consumers who feel more confident about the economy generally also feel better about their employment prospects and are therefore more willing to buy houses, cars, appliances, and other items. Investors should look at the stocks of car manufacturers, home builders, and other retailers that typically see sales rise when the economy begins an expansion period.

Sentiment has remained essentially unchanged since January 2024, continuing the plateau that followed the large gains seen at the end of 2023, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Investing.com– The S&P 500 closer higher Friday, notching its best week this year as easing fears over the economic triggered a wave of dip buying in stocks following the recent market… Erika Rasure is globally-recognized as a leading consumer economics subject matter expert, researcher, and educator. She is a financial therapist and transformational coach, with a special interest in helping women learn how to invest. Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader.